Threading on Dangerous Ground or Breaking Free from Coercion? Liberia’s HPX-AML Dilemma
- Michael T
- Jul 7
- 3 min read
Did Liberia just break free from ArcelorMittal Liberia’s circle of legalistic coercion, or does the country now stand on the verge of serious legal trouble? Over the weekend, the government and Ivanhoe Atlantic (formerly HPX) reportedly signed a closed-door rail access pact. The secrecy surrounding the signing—media barred, details withheld—has triggered legal, political, and public suspicions.
The Liberian Observer, widely regarded as the PR organ for HPX’s interests, was the first to break news of the signing. Yet when the moment arrived, the broader press corps was reportedly left outside the National Investment Commission, denied access as government officials and Ivanhoe Atlantic executives completed their business away from public view. For a nation still seeking to rebuild trust in its institutions, this lack of transparency has not gone unnoticed.
This entire episode pivots on the 2007 Mineral Development Agreement (MDA) with ArcelorMittal Liberia (AML), a deal that continues to define the rules of engagement for Liberia’s rail and port infrastructure. Ratified by the legislature and binding under both Liberian and international law, the MDA gives AML exclusive rights to operate and manage the Yekepa-Buchanan rail and port corridor until 2030.
By opening the rails to Ivanhoe Atlantic before the expiry of AML’s exclusivity, the government appears to be testing the very limits of its legal obligations. The MDA is no ordinary business deal. It is fortified with detailed dispute resolution clauses, requiring parties to first seek amicable settlement, and if that fails, to submit to binding international arbitration—typically under ICSID or ICC rules. These are not idle provisions; arbitral awards are enforceable in Liberia and across the globe.
Across Africa and beyond, governments that have breached such agreements have been forced to pay out millions in damages, often with lasting reputational consequences for their investment climate.
The timing of the Ivanhoe Atlantic deal is hardly coincidental. President Joseph Boakai is preparing for a White House summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, where critical minerals and commercial partnerships are front and center. The HPX deal is widely interpreted as a move to align Liberia with American strategic interests, especially as the U.S. seeks to secure supply chains for key minerals.
The United States has made no secret of its backing for HPX’s regional ambitions, viewing West African iron ore as a strategic asset in an increasingly competitive global market. For Liberia, the temptation to please Washington is not new. But history has shown that chasing foreign approval at the expense of domestic legal commitments rarely ends well.
For the international investment community, the sanctity of the contract is non-negotiable. If a government can sideline a binding agreement for diplomatic advantage, the risks of doing business multiply overnight. The exclusion of the media, the apparent disregard for AML’s exclusivity, and the rush to sign before a major diplomatic event all suggest a troubling willingness to subordinate legal commitments to short-term political goals. Every investor—current and future—will be watching how Liberia navigates this dispute. A reputation for unpredictability and legal shortcuts can raise the cost of capital and deter the very investment the country needs for development.
Liberia stands at a critical juncture. For some, the government’s decision to sign a secretive rail access pact with Ivanhoe Atlantic may be seen as a bold effort to break free from years of legalistic entanglement with AML. For others, it is a reckless gamble that could backfire with huge consequences.
However, it is also worth noting that Ivanhoe Atlantic (HPX) brings a track record of global mining expertise and a vision for open, multi-user infrastructure that, if managed transparently and lawfully, could unlock new opportunities for Liberian industry, regional trade, and community development. Whether this is the moment Liberia escapes a cycle of legal coercion or steps into a new era of legal peril will depend on how the coming months unfold as the nation balances its Economic ambitions with its Legal obligations.
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