The battle for Nimba County's senatorial seat following the death of Senator Prince Y. Johnson (PYJ) on November 28, 2024, is shaping up to be a defining moment in Liberian politics[1][4]. PYJ's dominant role as a kingmaker and Nimba's strategic importance as the second-largest county by voter population make this election crucial for both the county and the nation[1][7].
Senator PYJ was more than a lawmaker; he was a political powerhouse whose influence shaped Nimba's political landscape for decades[1]. He rose to prominence during Liberia's civil war as a warlord defending Nimba from the tyranny of President Doe, and later became an influential politician, serving as Senator for Nimba County since 2006[1][4]. His strategic alliances effectively influenced the outcomes of three presidential elections, playing crucial roles in the victories of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf in 2005 and 2011, George Weah in 2017, and Joseph Boakai in 2023[1][7].
PYJ's death has left a significant leadership vacuum in Nimba County, raising questions about the county's future political alignment[1]. This void has fueled growing discontent among Nimbaians who feel that PYJ was betrayed by the Unity Party (UP) leadership, particularly President Joseph Boakai and Vice President Jeremiah Koung[2].
Key points of contention include:
- The WCC Signing: Many in Nimba perceive PYJ's death as indirectly linked to the signing of the War Crimes Court (WCC) resolution under the UP regime[2]. This perception stems from PYJ's vocal opposition to the court, combined with his pivotal role in helping the UP win the presidential election[2]. It is believed the UP government's endorsement of the WCC led to PYJ's worries and failling in health and potential death. For others, PYJ was a vallain, but for the people of Nimba, he was their hero.
-Boakai's Actions: There's a strong narrative that President Boakai refused to answer PYJ's calls, dismissed his recommendations, and failed to offer him the same level of support and respect that former President George Weah extended during his six-year tenure[2].
- Perceived Marginalization: At some point, Senator Johnson claimed that the people around President Boakai were advising him wrongly. He lamented that all ministries and public corporations were given to others, leaving the MDR with only "one little Ministry of Labor"[2].
Vice President Jeremiah Koung's recent distancing from PYJ and the MDR shortly before PYJ's death has not gone unnoticed as well[2]. In a leaked audio earlier this year, PYJ expressed disappointment in Koung for failing to consult him on critical decisions, including appointments[2]. This perceived betrayal by his 'godson' may make it harder for Koung to rally grassroots support in Nimba, especially the way things ended, leaving the field open to competing narratives and potentially fracturing support in the county[2].
The death of PYJ has also reignited conversations about accountability and the legacy of crimes committed during Liberia's civil war, especially as many continue to seek justice for these events[1]. This complex backdrop sets the stage for a highly contentious and strategically significant senatorial by-election in Nimba County.
Potential Candidates and Their Prospects
The field of candidates for this by-election is diverse, with their chances hinging on tribal dynamics, party backing, and public sentiment [13].
The upcoming senatorial by-election in Nimba County is shaping up to be a highly competitive and strategically significant race, with diverse candidates vying for the seat. The outcome will likely hinge on tribal dynamics, party backing, and public sentiment. Here's a detailed analysis of the potential candidates and their prospects:
Garrison Yealu
Background:
- Former Representative
- Former head of the Governance Commission
- Member of the Gio tribe
- Likely candidate for the Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC)
Strengths:
- His Gio identity aligns with Nimba's dominant tribal demographic, potentially giving him a significant voter base[6].
- CDC's support could provide strong political capital and a robust campaign infrastructure, including financial resources and organizational support.
- As a former Representative, Yealu has experience in legislative affairs and familiarity with Nimba's political landscape.
-The betrayal narrative surrounding PYJ could galvanize support for a CDC-backed candidate, leveraging the perception that CDC protected PYJ while UP failed him.
-Not currently holding a government position could potentially appeal to traditional voters.
-Came third in 2020 Senatorial by-election
Challenges:
- CDC's national performance in recent years may deter some voters who are dissatisfied with the party's governance record.
- He may need to cleverly handle any negative perceptions associated with the previous CDC administration.
-Not strong in the Mano belt
Projection:
Yealu stands as a top contender. The narrative of Unity Party (UP) betraying Prince Y. Johnson (PYJ) and CDC's position as the leading opposition could work in his favor[9]. His Gio background and CDC backing make him a formidable candidate in this race.
Samuel Gongben Kogar
Background:
- Sitting lawmaker of the People's Unification Party (PUP)
- Potentially backed by the Unity Party (UP)[6]
-Recent head of the rebellion to oust House Speaker Fonati Koffa
-Came second in 2024 Senatorial election in Nimba
Strengths:
- His incumbency as a lawmaker offers visibility and influence in Nimba politics[6].
- If UP consolidates opposition votes behind him, he could become a formidable force, leveraging the ruling party's resources and network.
- His experience in the legislature could be seen as an asset by voters looking for an experienced candidate.
-Came in second in the last byelection with 41,196 votes (36.37%).
-FIrst Cousin of PYJ
-strong both in Gio and Mano belt because his Father is a gio and his mother a mano
Challenges:
- The perception that he has shifted from being critical and part of a government accused of betraying PYJ might erode his appeal, especially among PYJ's supporters[9].
- Balancing his PUP affiliation with potential UP support could create voter confusion or friction.
-Occupying one post and still running for another could hinder traditional sympathy
-He ended at second place in the past senatorial election not just on his own record but mainly PYJ campaingning for him.
Projection:
While a strong candidate, Kogar's success depends on the UP's ability to reframe the betrayal narrative and present him as a unifying force. His ability to navigate the complex political alliances in Nimba will be crucial.
Edith Gongloe
Background:
- Prominent Mano politician with a strong voice in Nimba politics
- Former candidate for senatorial positions
-Heavily Campaigned for the CDC 2023 Presidential election
Strengths:
- Recognized for her experience and progressive appeal, especially among women and youth.
- Her candidacy could energize female voters and those looking for change in Nimba's political landscape.
- Her Mano background could appeal to voters seeking ethnic balance in representation.
-When there are more candiates from the Gio belt, she could have a leverage.
Challenges:
- Tribal dynamics, given Nimba's Gio majority and the presence of Mano Senator Nyan Twayen, may limit her chances[6].
- As a woman in a traditionally male-dominated political arena, she may face additional hurdles.
-Usually travels back to the United states after elections. She is often not with the people.
Projection:
If Edith runs, she remains a formidable candidate. However, her success depends on cross-tribal support and a unifying, development-focused campaign. Her ability to bridge tribal divides and appeal to a broad base will be critical.
Other Candidates
Grupee Thomas S.:
- A former senator whose diminishing influence and lack of recent wins make him an underdog.
- His experience as a former senator could be both an asset and a liability, depending on public perception of his previous tenure.
Roland Duo
-came third in 2023 senatorial election
-Strong in District 9 Nimba
Taa Wongbe
Alledgely poised to be heavily supported by Musa Bility
Current Lawmaker for District 9
Mark Gbliwon
-key campaingner for Koung in 2011 and 2020 but have been a CDC partisan all along.
-Currently not in good standing with Koung and UP
Selekpoh Armstrong Gobac:
- A perennial candidate with minimal resources and support, unlikely to pose a serious threat.
- His persistence in running may appeal to some voters looking for alternatives to established politicians.
Strategic Implications
Nimba's Role in National Politics:
With Nimba being the second-largest county by voter population after Montserrado, the stakes for this by-election are enormous. The outcome will set the tone for 2029, influencing alliances and power dynamics in the Senate and beyond. The winner could play a crucial role in shaping national policies and Nimba's development trajectory.
Impact of Public Sentiment:
- The betrayal narrative surrounding PYJ could galvanize support for a CDC-backed candidate like Yealu, leveraging the perception that CDC protected PYJ while UP failed him[9].
- The UP will need to counter this narrative by emphasizing its development agenda and addressing voters' frustrations directly. This could benefit candidates like Kogar if he successfully becomes the UP's choice and aligns with their message.
Key Electoral Considerations:
- Tribal Dynamics: The Gio majority will be a decisive factor. Candidates unable to connect with this bloc will struggle[6]. This gives an edge to Gio candidates like Yealu and Kogar.
- Youth and Development: With Nimba's growing youth population, addressing unemployment, education, and infrastructure will resonate deeply. Candidates who present concrete plans for these issues could gain significant support.
- Anti-Incumbency Sentiment: Disillusionment with the UP regime could drive voters toward opposition candidates or reformists. This could benefit CDC-backed candidates or independents who position themselves as agents of change.
The by-election in Nimba County is poised to be a complex and closely watched race, with significant implications for both local and national politics. The interplay of tribal loyalties, party affiliations, and development agendas will likely determine the outcome, making it a microcosm of Liberia's broader political dynamics.
Conclusion
This by-election is poised to be one of the most competitive in Nimba's history. The strongest possible contenders are Garrison Yealu (CDC) and Kogar Samuel Gongben (PUP/UP), each projected to be backed by major political institutions[13]. However, the betrayal narrative and lingering frustrations with national politics may tilt the scales toward the CDC if levage wisely[9].
While Vice President Koung will undoubtedly attempt to maintain influence in Nimba, his recent actions and perceived distance from PYJ could hinder his ability to sway the electorate[6]. The election will ultimately hinge on candidates' ability to mobilize grassroots support, address Nimba's pressing development needs, and navigate the county's complex political terrain[11][13].
__________________________________________________________________________________
Get Involved
Do you have additional facts to add to this insight or an opinion you would like to express?
Email Us
References
[1] https://smartnewsliberia.com/prince-y-johnson-controversial-nimba-county-senator-and-former-warlord-dies-at-72/
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Johnson
[3] https://liberianinvestigator.com/politics/senator-prince-johnson-warns-unity-party-about-2029-election-prospects/
[4] https://www.eisa.org/liberias-2024-legislative-by-elections-in-nimba-and-grand-gedeh-counties-assessing-the-races-and-the-racers/
[5] https://thenewdawnliberia.com/up-candidate-nya-leads-polls-in-nimba/
[6] https://frontpageafricaonline.com/news/liberia-ethnic-rivalry-overshadows-merit-in-nimbas-senatorial-by-election/
[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Liberian_by-elections
[8] https://mptf.undp.org/sites/default/files/documents/2024-11/pbf_peaceful_electoral_environment_project_2024_annual_progress_report_submitted_on_15112024.pdfThe battle for Nimba, who can step into, PYJ's Legacy
[9] https://smartnewsliberia.com/liberians-react-to-the-passing-of-senator-prince-johnson-amid-mixed-views-on-his-legacy/The battle for Nimba, who can step into, PYJ's Legacy
[10] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1kn9v97e3vo
[11] https://www.eisa.org/navigating-democracy-challenges-and-opportunities-in-liberias-2024-legislative-by-elections-in-nimba-and-grand-gedeh-counties/
[12] https://frontpageafricaonline.com/breaking-news/liberia-warlord-turned-senator-prince-y-johnson-is-dead/The battle for Nimba, who can step into, PYJ's Legacy
[1] https://liberiapublicradio.com/2024/11/30/reflecting-on-the-political-legacy-of-the-late-senator-prince-johnson-of-nimba-county/The battle for Nimba, who can step into, PYJ's Legacy
[2] https://frontpageafricaonline.com/politics/liberia-disappointed-prince-johnson-begins-plot-against-unity-party-signaling-an-early-fallout-with-the-regime/
[3] https://stratnewsglobal.com/world-news/liberias-notorious-warlord-turned-senator-prince-johnson-dies-at-72/
[4] https://thenewdawnliberia.com/pyj-is-dead/
[5] https://thenewdawnliberia.com/corruption-allegations-against-jeremiah-koung-as-the-senator-becomes-up-vice-presidential-aspirant/
[6] https://frontpageafricaonline.com/news/liberia-stand-demands-swift-action-on-war-crimes-court-in-wake-of-senator-johnsons-death/
[7] https://gnnliberia.com/prince-y-johnson-a-retired-b-general-rebel-leader-and-king-maker-has-fallen/
[8] https://frontpageafricaonline.com/breaking-news/liberia-pres-boakai-ex-president-weah-lead-reactions-to-nimba-godfather-prince-johnsons-death/
Comments