IMF Trims Liberia’s Growth Expectations by One-Fifth Amid Persistent Economic Strains
- Michael T
- Oct 3
- 2 min read
MONROVIA, Oct 3 – Liberia’s economic outlook darkened after the International Monetary Fund slashed its 2025 growth forecast by nearly 20%, depicting continued pressure on one of West Africa’s least diversified economies.
The IMF now projects Liberia’s real GDP will expand 4.6% in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 5.6%. The revised figure follows a year in which the economy slowed to an estimated 4% growth, and coincides with rising inflation, which the IMF expects to average 10.7% next year.
Government spokespeople attributed the downgrade to volatile commodity prices and cooling external demand. Independent economists told Insights Liberia the country’s reliance on gold, iron ore, and rubber exports leaves it highly vulnerable to shifts in global markets.
Central bank data show Liberia’s foreign exchange reserves now cover only about two and a half months of imports—one of the lowest buffers in the region. The IMF warned this leaves the country exposed to external shocks and said the funds should be protected to avoid triggering exchange rate instability.
The government’s “rescue” agenda, which promised to strengthen public services and diversify the economy, has so far yielded limited results. Budget cuts have narrowed the deficit, but at the expense of social programmes and investment. The IMF praised efforts to increase tax revenue but noted risks from reduced donor funding and stressed the need for deeper reforms, especially in public financial management.
Anti-corruption pledges have yet to yield clear results. “They talk about transparency, but little has changed,” said Samuel Jackson, an economist based in Monrovia. International partners have called for more decisive action to improve governance and reduce poverty.
The IMF expects stronger growth in 2026, up to 5.4%, driven by mining and agriculture. Still, analysts warned that unless the government accelerates reforms and expands beyond commodities, growth will remain vulnerable to fresh downgrades.
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