Joseph Boakai assumed the presidency of Liberia on January 22, 2024, following a campaign that promised significant reforms and development for the nation. As his administration approaches its first year in office, it's crucial to assess the progress made toward fulfilling campaign promises and addressing Liberia's pressing challenges. This analysis examines the Boakai administration's performance across key sectors, evaluating achievements and areas where progress has been slower than anticipated.
Background
President Boakai came into office with the "ARREST" agenda (Agriculture, Roads, Rule of Law, Education, Sanitation, and Tourism), which formed the cornerstone of his campaign promises [7]. This agenda addressed Liberia's critical issues, including economic development, infrastructure improvement, and strengthening governance. The expectations were high, given Boakai's extensive government experience and promises to tackle corruption and promote inclusive growth.
The ARREST agenda was designed as a comprehensive strategy to transform Liberia's economy and society:
1. Agriculture: Boakai emphasized agriculture as a key driver of the economy, potentially contributing to national development. He highlighted its significance in providing livelihoods for over 50 percent of the population and contributing substantially to the country's GDP [7].
2. Roads: Infrastructure development, particularly road construction, was identified as crucial for economic growth and connectivity across the country.
3. Rule of Law: Boakai pledged to strengthen the justice system and combat corruption. He announced plans to explore the establishment of a War and Economic Crimes Court (WECC) to address historical injustices [7].
4. Education: Improving access to quality education was a key component of the agenda, which aimed to develop human capital and foster long-term economic growth.
5. Sanitation: Addressing public health and environmental concerns through improved sanitation was included as a critical aspect of national development.
6. Tourism: Developing the tourism sector was a potential source of economic diversification and job creation.
The ARREST agenda was part of a broader vision to transform Liberia into a middle-income nation by 2030 [1]. This ambitious goal reflected Boakai's commitment to addressing Liberia's long-standing issues of postwar governance, Development, poverty, underdevelopment, and inequality.
To implement Boakai's ARREST Agenda and enhance Liberia's Post-War Governance, this administration initiated the process of crafting the ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development (AAID), which includes the Public Sector Investment Plan (PSIP) and fifteen County Development Agendas (CDAs) [8]. This process was designed to engage various stakeholders, including development partners, to chart a strategic course for Liberia over the next five years.
Expectations for Boakai's presidency were further heightened by his promises to combat corruption, a persistent issue in Liberian politics. He pledged to reset the fight against corruption and impunity, seeking advice from the United Nations Secretary-General to ensure compliance with international standards in establishing accountability mechanisms [7].
As Boakai's administration approached its first year, implementing the ARREST agenda and its impact on Liberia's development became a key focus for assessing the effectiveness of his leadership and fulfilling his campaign promises.
Executive Branch Assessment
1. Economic Performance
Liberia's economy has shown signs of recovery and growth in recent years, though challenges remain. Key economic indicators provide insight into the country's performance:
1. GDP Growth
- GDP growth is projected to reach 5.3% in 2024, up from 4.7% in 2023 [5].
- This growth is expected to be driven by new mining investments and reforms in vital sectors such as energy, transportation, and financial services [5].
- The World Bank forecasts that real GDP growth will accelerate to 5.4% in 2024 from an estimated 4.7% in 2023 [1].
2. Inflation
- Inflation rose to 10.1% in 2023, up from 7.6% in 2022 [2].
This increase was primarily driven by food prices, exchange rate depreciation, and budget monetization [2].
- However, the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) has adopted a stringent monetary policy, expected to reduce inflation to 7.7% in 2024, with further declines to 5.4% anticipated by 2026 [5].
3. Poverty Rate
- The poverty rate dropped from 63% in 2020 to 59.7% in 2023 [5].
- This positive shift is largely credited to economic recovery despite global financial hurdles [5].
- However, it's important to note that this trend began before Boakai's presidency, reflecting longer-term economic developments [5].
4. Fiscal Performance
- The government's fiscal deficit reached 7.1% of GDP in 2023 due to a decline in revenues and grants and increased consumption spending [2].
- In the medium term, the fiscal deficit is expected to decrease as the authorities enhance domestic resource mobilization and bolster expenditure controls [2].
5. External Sector
- Liberia's current account deficit (CAD) widened to 26.4% of GDP in 2023 [2].
- Exports increased by 8.2%, slower than the 16.6% growth in 2022, while imports expanded by 27.2% [2].
- The CAD is projected to remain elevated in the medium term, averaging 22% of GDP [2].
6. Debt Situation
- Liberia is at moderate risk of external debt distress and a high risk of overall debt distress [2].
- The country's debt to GDP ratio stood at 58.8% of GDP in 2023 [2].
While these indicators show some positive trends, particularly in GDP growth and poverty reduction, Liberia still faces significant economic challenges, including high inflation, substantial fiscal deficits, and a large current deficit. The projected GDP growth and inflation improvements for 2024 and beyond will depend on the successful implementation of economic reforms and the global economic environment.
2. 2. Policy Initiatives
President Joseph Boakai's administration has initiated several key policy measures aimed at addressing historical injustices and combating corruption in Liberia. Two significant initiatives stand out:
a) Establishment of Special Courts
On May 2, 2024, President Boakai signed Executive Order No. 131, paving the way for the establishment of two crucial judicial bodies:
1. Special War Crimes Court for Liberia
- This court is intended to prosecute individuals and organizations responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the Liberian civil war (1979-2003) [1][4].
- It will be an international tribunal established with international partners, though its exact jurisdiction and location are yet to be determined [1].
- The executive order follows a parliamentary resolution in April calling for establishing such a court [1].
- This represents the first domestic attempt to hold perpetrators legally accountable for atrocities committed during the conflict [1].
2. National Anti-Corruption Court
- This domestic court will have the "power to adjudicate matters involving acts of corruption" during the civil war [1].
- Legislation will need to be passed by parliament to establish this court [1].
The Executive Order also establishes an Office with the specific mandate of setting up these courts. This Office will:
- Define the model for the Special War Crimes Court, drawing inspiration from international precedents.
- Determine the court's duration and jurisdictional scope.
- Collaborate with international partners to secure financing [4].
However, implementing this initiative has faced challenges. Cllr. Jonathan Massaquoi's initial appointment as Executive Director of the War and Economic Crimes Court (WECC) Office sparked controversy, leading to his removal and a call for reconstitution of the office's leadership [2].
b) Asset Declaration Initiative
The Boakai administration has initiated a comprehensive asset declaration process for public officials aimed at enhancing transparency and government accountability. However, this initiative has faced significant compliance challenges:
- Out of 1,900 government employees and officials required to declare their assets, only 26.5% were compliant as of July 31, 2024, leaving 73.5% non-compliant [5][6].
- Compliance rates across government branches
Legislature: Only 26 out of 73 elected Representatives in the House of Representatives and 12 out of 30 Senators in the Senate complied [5].
- Executive Branch: Of 1,281 appointed officials required to declare assets, only 332 complied [5].
- Judiciary: Out of 333 officials required to declare assets, only 28 complied, including seven judges and 21 administrative staff [5].
- The Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission (LACC) has recommended stringent measures for non-compliance, including suspension and withholding of salaries [5].
- LACC Chairperson Cllr. Alexandra Zoe emphasized that these measures align with the "Rule of Law" pillar of the Government of Liberia's ARREST agenda [5].
These initiatives demonstrate the Boakai administration's commitment to addressing historical injustices and combating corruption. However, the low compliance rate in asset declaration and the challenges in establishing the special courts highlight the significant obstacles to these reform efforts.
3. Budget Management
President Joseph Boakai's administration has faced significant fiscal challenges in its first year, necessitating budget revisions and austerity measures. The key aspects of the budget management situation are as follows:
1. Recast Budget Proposal
President Boakai submitted a proposed recast budget of US$721.5 million to the National Legislature. This revised budget reflected:
- A projected revenue decline of US$17.3 million, representing a 2.3% decrease from the original budget.
- Implementing a US$48 million austerity measure to address the revenue shortfall.
2. Budget Evolution
The budget has undergone several revisions since the transition of power:
The Boakai-Koung administration presented the 55th National Legislature with a revised post-election draft budget of US$692.41 million on March 14, 2024.
- After deliberations, the Legislature adjusted the budget upward, passing a law approving a US$738.86 million budget for Fiscal Year 2024.
- The current recast budget proposal of US$721.5 million represents a further adjustment in response to economic realities.
3. Sectoral Budget Allocations:
Several key sectors have experienced budget cuts in the recast proposal:
The health sector budget is reduced from US$80.1 million to US$78.9 million, a 1.5% decline. It now represents 10.9% of the recast budget.
- The Education sector sees a reduction from US$111.3 million to US$108.4 million, a 2.6% decrease, accounting for 15% of the total recast budget.
Most notably, the agriculture sector budget decreased from US$8.8 million to US$6.7 million, a significant 23.9% decline. It now represents only 0.93% of the total recast budget.
4. Increased Recurrent Expenditure
Despite the overall budget reduction, the government proposes a 91.4% increase in recurrent expenditure, from US$643.7 million to US$659.4 million, despite the projected revenue decline.
5. Public Sector Investment Plan (PSIP) Reduction
The PSIP allocation has dropped significantly, from US$95.1 million to US$62.1 million, now accounting for only 8.6% of the recast budget.
6. Legislative and Public Administration Increases
- The budget for the Legislature is projected to rise from US$53.4 million to US$57.9 million.
The Public Administration sector allocation has increased from US$256.7 million to US$266.6 million, a 3.7% rise, and now accounts for 36.9% of the total recast budget.
- Employee compensation is set to increase from US$298.7 million to US$301.9 million, representing 41.8% of the recast budget.
These budget revisions reflect the Boakai administration's economic challenges, including revenue shortfalls and the need for austerity measures. The significant cut to the agriculture sector budget is particularly noteworthy, given the sector's importance in Liberia's economy and the administration's stated focus on agricultural development. The increases in legislative and public administration budgets, alongside cuts to key sectors like health, education, and agriculture, may raise questions about the administration's priorities in resource allocation during a period of fiscal constraint.
According to the comprehensive President Meter Performance Report released by Naymote Partners for Democratic Development, covering the period from January to August 2024, President Joseph Nyumah Boakai's administration has shown mixed results in fulfilling campaign promises and commitments.
The report provides a detailed breakdown of the government's performance:
1. Overall Promise Fulfillment:
- Out of 119 tracked commitments made by President Boakai, only 3 (3%) have been fully completed.
- 70 promises (59%) are still ongoing.
- 17 promises (14%) have not yet started.
- 29 promises (24%) remain unrated due to insufficient data or delays in government action.
2. Sectoral Breakdown:
- Macroeconomic Stability and Infrastructural Development: Of the 67 promises under this pillar, 42 are ongoing, with substantial investments in road construction and financial management reforms.
- Health and WASH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene): 9 out of 12 promises are ongoing, showing progress in improving access to healthcare and sanitation.
-Education: Three out of 11 promises are ongoing, aimed at improving access and quality in the education sector.
-Governance and Rule of Law: None of the 16 promises have been completed, reflecting significant challenges in strengthening Liberia's governance and justice systems.
- Gender, Youth, Children, and Social Protection: Only one of nine promises has been completed.
- Fight Against Corruption: All four commitments are ongoing, highlighting the need for robust integrity measures within the government.
3. Analysis of Progress
- The report emphasizes that while some advancements have been made, particularly in infrastructure and governance issues, there are concerns about the slow pace of action on key reforms needed to drive sustainable growth.
- Naymote's Executive Director, Eddie Jarwolo, stated, "While the government's focus on infrastructure and governance issues is commendable, concerns remain about the slow pace of action on key reforms needed to drive sustainable growth."
- The report highlights those reforms in sectors like health, education, the fight against illicit drugs, the rule of law, and corruption are vital for improving service delivery and maintaining oversight of public infrastructure and investments.
4. Transparency Concerns
- The report notes a lack of accessible data from various government institutions, which limits public oversight and transparency.
- Enhanced information-sharing channels are deemed essential to build trust and improve accountability.
5. Recommendations:
- The report suggests that as President Boakai's administration continues its work, there is a critical need to accelerate legislative and policy initiatives to turn these promises into tangible outcomes.
- With a six-year mandate under the 1986 Constitution, the opportunity for significant reform exists, but urgent attention to challenges is required to meet the expectations of the Liberian people.
These findings provide a comprehensive overview of the Boakai administration's performance in its first eight months, highlighting progress and areas for improvement. The low completion rate of promises (3%) suggests that while many initiatives are underway, there is a significant gap between commitments and their full realization.
Legislative Branch Assessment
1. Budget Allocation:
The Liberian Legislature's budget has been a subject of significant scrutiny and concern due to its disproportionate size relative to other sectors and regional comparisons:
- The Legislature's budget is projected to rise from US$53.4 million to US$57.9 million in the recast budget for Fiscal Year 2024. This increase comes at a time when many other sectors are facing budget cuts.
- Relative to GDP, spending by the Liberian Legislature is at least five times higher than elsewhere in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This makes Liberia a stark outlier regarding legislative spending in the region.
- The Legislature has consistently outspent critical sectors such as health and education over the past six years (2018-2023). This trend has raised concerns about prioritizing resources in
the national budget.
- Expenditure per lawmaker in Liberia is the highest in ECOWAS, except for Nigeria, in US$ terms and by far the highest in the region relative to per capita income.
Most of the Legislature's spending has been on goods and services, predominantly under the omnibus allotment "operational expenses," which raises transparency concerns due to its lack of specificity.
2. Political Stability
The Liberian Legislature, particularly the House of Representatives, has been grappling with significant internal conflicts that have affected its stability and functionality:
- There have been ongoing efforts to unseat Speaker J. Fonati Koffa, reflecting significant instability within the legislature. A group of lawmakers, claiming to be the "Majority Bloc," has been pushing for Koffa's removal.
- The Supreme Court of Liberia issued a stay order on proceedings by the "Majority Bloc" aiming to unseat Speaker Koffa. This legal intervention highlights the severity of the internal conflict.
- Speaker Koffa has challenged the "Majority Bloc" to secure the support of 49 lawmakers, as required by the House's standing rules, to unseat him. This ongoing dispute has created a divided house, with Koffa reportedly having the support of 30 members while the Majority Bloc comprises 43 lawmakers.
- The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has intervened, sending a delegation to Liberia on a mediation mission to address the crisis in the House of Representatives.
3. Legislative Productivity
The internal conflicts and budget issues have significantly impacted the legislature's productivity:
- The ongoing crisis in the House of Representatives has delayed the passage of the 2024 national budget. This delay has potential implications for government operations and the implementation of critical policies.
- The legislature faced a crucial 15-day window to pass the draft recast budget for the 2024 fiscal year, with the risk of a government shutdown looming if they failed to act within the stipulated time frame.
Speaker Koffa highlighted that the absence of essential supporting documents from the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning has further complicated the budget approval process.
Internal conflicts have compromised the legislature's ability to conduct oversight and effectively scrutinize the budget, raising concerns about the quality of legislative review.
These issues in the Legislative Branch highlight significant challenges in governance, fiscal responsibility, and political stability in Liberia. The disproportionate budget allocation to the legislature, coupled with internal conflicts and reduced productivity, raises serious questions about the effectiveness and efficiency of the legislative process in the country.
Judicial Branch Assessment:
1. Judicial Branch Assessment:
1. Judicial Reforms
The Boakai administration has taken significant steps towards judicial reform, particularly in addressing historical injustices and corruption:
a) Special War Crimes Court:
- On May 2, 2024, President Boakai signed Executive Order No. 131, establishing the Office of War and Economic Crimes Court.
- This court is intended to prosecute individuals responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the Liberian civil war (1979-2003).
- The executive order follows a parliamentary resolution in April calling for establishing such a court.
- This represents the first domestic attempt to hold perpetrators legally accountable for atrocities committed during the conflict.
b) National Anti-Corruption Court:
The same executive order also established a domestic court with the "power to adjudicate matters involving acts of corruption" during the Civil War.
- Legislation will need to be passed by parliament to establish this court.
These initiatives signal a commitment to addressing long-standing issues of impunity and corruption in Liberia. However, implementation faces challenges:
The initial appointment of Cllr. As Executive Director of the War and Economic Crimes Court (WECC) Office, Jonathan Massaquoi sparked controversy, leading to his removal and a call to reconstitute the office's leadership.
- Funding remains a significant concern, with estimates suggesting the courts could cost at least $60 million to operate effectively.
2. Capacity Building
While there is limited data available on specific improvements in judicial infrastructure or case resolution rates, some initiatives are underway:
a) Five-Year Strategic Plan:
- Chief Justice Sie-A-Nyene Yuoh launched a five-year strategic plan for the judiciary on February 6, 2024.
- The plan focuses on five thematic areas: Quality and Expanded Infrastructure, Professional Development, Efficient Case Management, Improved Criminal Justice Administration, and Enhanced Constitutional Rights Litigation and Judicial Integrity.
b) Training and Reorientation:
- The judiciary has begun reorientation of staff through training and workshops.
- The first phase of reorientation workshops was held in the southeast region in February 2024.
- A routine training scheme has been initiated to improve the skills and knowledge of judicial employees.
c) Modernization of Magisterial Courts:
Under Chief Justice Yuoh's leadership, the Supreme Court has prepared a prototype for constructing modernized magisterial courts.
- This initiative aims to replace structures built under the United Nations Mission In Liberia (UNMIL) quick impact project after the 2003 war.
d) Review of Court Rules and Professional Codes:
- A committee, chaired by former Chief Justice Francis S. Korkpor, Sr., has been established to review and update court rules, professional law codes, and the judicial canon for judges.
- The last review and amendment to these documents was done in 1999.
However, significant challenges remain:
- Chief Justice Yuoh has emphasized the need for increased financial support to strengthen the court system, which she describes as fragile.
- Many magisterial courts are reported to be in deplorable conditions, posing serious health risks to magistrates, staff, and litigants.
- The judiciary's budget allocation remains a concern, with Chief Justice Yuoh lamenting limited resources during the opening of the October Term of Court in 2024.
While there are clear initiatives aimed at judicial reform and capacity building, the Liberian judiciary faces significant challenges in terms of infrastructure, funding, and reform implementation. The success of these initiatives will largely depend on sustained government commitment and adequate resource allocation to the judicial branch.
Public Perception of President Joseph Boakai's Administration:
1. Approval Ratings:
While comprehensive and recent polling data on President Boakai's approval ratings are limited, early assessments indicate a decline in public confidence regarding the administration's performance:
- A Gallup poll conducted just before the October 2023 election showed that 54% of Liberians approved of then-President George Weah's job performance, down from 65% in 2022. This downward trend suggests a general dissatisfaction with the government performance that the Boakai administration inherited.
- The lack of recent polling data specific to Boakai's administration makes it difficult to quantify current approval ratings accurately. However, various reports and public statements suggest a growing unease with the new government's performance.
2. Criticisms:
The Boakai administration has faced several criticisms in its first months in office:
a) Corruption Allegations:
- The Liberian Anti-Corruption Commission (LACC) has announced investigations into allegations that over US$15 million has been misappropriated by government officials through "off-budget" practices.
- Specific cases, such as the controversial purchase of a US$96,000 vehicle for Commerce Minister Amin Modad, have drawn public ire.
b) Ineffectiveness:
- According to Naymote Partners for Democratic Development, out of 119 tracked commitments made by President Boakai, only 3 (3%) have been fully completed after 8 months in office, with 70 (59%) still ongoing.
- The slow pace of promise fulfillment has raised concerns about the administration's ability to implement its ambitious agenda.
c) Economic Development:
- Despite campaign promises to transform the economy, many Liberians feel disconnected from the administration's economic policies, which have yet to deliver visible improvements in employment or cost of living.
- The poverty rate, while showing some improvement (dropping from 63% in 2020 to 59.7% in 2023), remains a significant concern.
d) Drug Abuse:
- The administration's efforts to combat drug abuse, particularly among youth, have been criticized as insufficient. This issue was highlighted as a key concern during Boakai's campaign.
e) Nepotism Allegations:
- A judge recently accused Boakai of cronyism, claiming he favors people from his home area of Lofa County for top jobs. While the presidency denies this, it has contributed to public skepticism.
f) Slow Progress on Key Reforms:
- Implementing significant initiatives, such as establishing a War and Economic Crimes Court, has faced delays and controversies.
g) Budget Management:
The administration's handling of the national budget, including submission delays and allegations of off-budget spending, has raised concerns about fiscal responsibility.
These criticisms reflect Liberians' growing impatience for tangible governance and improvements in living standards. The Boakai administration, which came to power promising reform and development, is facing increasing pressure to deliver on its campaign promises and effectively address these concerns.
1. Promise Fulfillment and Performance:
According to a comprehensive report by Naymote Partners for Democratic Development covering January to August 2024:
- Out of 119 tracked commitments made by President Boakai, only 3 (3%) have been fully completed.
- 70 promises (59%) are still ongoing.
- 17 promises (14%) have not yet started.
- 29 promises (24%) remain unrated due to insufficient data or delays in action.
The report notes that while there has been some progress, particularly in infrastructure and governance issues, there are concerns about the slow pace of action on key reforms needed to drive sustainable growth [2].
2. Economic Performance:
- GDP growth is projected to reach 5.3% in 2024, up from 4.7% in 2023.
- Inflation rose to 10.1% in 2023, up from 7.6% in 2022.
- The poverty rate dropped from 63% in 2020 to 59.7% in 2023, though this trend began before Boakai's presidency [4].
3. Anti-Corruption Efforts:
- President Boakai signed an executive order on May 2, 2024, establishing a Special War Crimes Court for Liberia and an anti-corruption court [6].
- The administration has initiated asset declaration processes, but only 26.5% of officials across the three branches of government fully met compliance requirements [5].
- Critics argue that some appointments, such as Cooper Kruah as justice minister (later withdrawn), undermine the administration's anti-corruption stance [10].
4. Budget Management:
- Boakai submitted a proposed recast budget of US$721.5 million, indicating a projected revenue decline of US$17.3 million (a 2.3% decrease) and a US$48 million austerity measure.
- The agriculture sector budget decreased from US$8.8 million to US$6.7 million, a 23.9% decline [5].
5. Public Perception and Criticisms:
- A Gallup poll conducted just before the October 2023 election showed that 54% of Liberians approved of then-President George Weah's job performance, down from 65% in 2022 [7].
- The Boakai administration has faced accusations of corruption, ineffectiveness, and slow progress on key issues like drug abuse and economic development [9].
- Critics, such as Vandalerk R. Patricks, have pointed out issues with budget allocations, particularly the small budget for the Liberia Drug Enforcement Agency despite promises to combat drug abuse [9].
6. Governance and Appointments:
- There are concerns about the inclusivity of Boakai's appointments, with critics alleging that 30% to 40% of appointees come from his home region [10].
The administration has been criticized for frequent appointment changes, which some view as signs of indecision [9].
7. International Relations:
- The administration has engaged with international partners, including initiating discussions with the IMF for a new Extended Credit Facility arrangement [8].
On October 30, 2024, President Boakai launched the Performance Management and Compliance System (PMCS) with support from UNDP. The system aims to strengthen governance frameworks [8].
Conclusion
President Joseph Boakai's first 11 months in office have been characterized by progress and persistent challenges, reflecting the complex landscape of Liberian politics and development. While the administration has initiated several important reforms and programs, the pace of implementation and tangible results has fallen short of public expectations. The administration has made some strides, particularly in setting ambitious agendas for agricultural development and judicial reform, but it faces significant challenges in translating these plans into tangible outcomes. The slow pace of promise fulfillment, ongoing corruption allegations, and economic hurdles underscore the need for accelerated and more effective implementation of reforms. The administration's ability to address these challenges, particularly in improving governance, stimulating economic growth, and rebuilding public trust, will be crucial in determining its overall success and impact on Liberia's development trajectory. As Liberia approaches the one-year mark of Boakai's presidency, the coming month will be critical in demonstrating whether the administration can overcome these obstacles and deliver on its promises of transformative leadership and inclusive development.
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